To kick us off in the Land of Smiles, let’s start off with a post from the veridiction files…
Part of the fun of writing this blog is holding on to news stories for a good period of time and seeing how they come out. That is the focus of my series of postings called veridictions – my completely made-up name for the process of verifying predictions. This post drives down that highway as I blow the dust off a story I have been keeping since March of 2010. That article made a prediction about life at the end of 2012 and now that time has come.
Okay, it’s way past the end of 2012 but sometimes it is hard for me to find all the data I need to tell if the predictor was right or hellishly wrong.
In the third month of 2010, BBC News ran a story online touting how the company Getjar, an app store, had predicted the state of the mobile app business at the end of 2012. In that BBC News article, Getjar announced that sales of mobile apps would reach the $17.5 billion mark by the end of 2012.
Now that we are halfway through 2013, how did Getjar’s prediction pan out?
The figure I found online – courtesy of AndriodAuthority.com – was that as of November 2012, the worldwide mobile app business was set to top $30 billion.
Getjar’s crystal ball was wrong by almost a half, but I’m sure the makers of apps are glad that their prediction was too low.
The other half of Getjar’s prognostication was that the number of downloads would reach 50 billion by the end of 2012. This was quite the call as the BBC story notes that that number would mean a 92% year-on-year increase from the 7 billion downloads of 2010.
Again…now that we are halfway through 2013, how did Getjar’s prediction pan out?
According to this article from Seeking Alpha in January of 2013, the numbers show that Getjar was close enough for me to give them a call of a correct prediction.
From Seeking Alpha, for the twelve months ending September 2012, the number of worldwide downloads hit 43.6 billion.
Can such astronomical numbers and phenomenal growth continue for the next two – or five, or ten – years? I certainly have no idea. I will leave that to other online predictors and prognosticators to debate.
Perhaps there’s even an app for that.