Eleven years ago today, and two months after I moved here from sunny (and non-snowy) southern California, the Washington DC area was hit by a semi-blizzard that dumped a foot of snow on the region. Newbie as I was to the world of black ice and all other things treacherous to driving in the snow, I dutifully hopped into my car and went to work where I was only one of three people who showed up on our thirty-person software development team. Luckily, one of them was the boss, so she was impressed with my dedication (if not my stupidity).
All that above serves as a tortured introduction to my main topic, which is veridicition, my concept for verifying predictions. Today’s subject is the weather.
For 218 years, The Old Farmer’s Alamanc has been predicting the weather for the coming year and I am not aware of any body putting this tome to the test.
I’m not sure where the idea started that The Old Farmer’s Almanac should be followed for its weather forecasting, but, to my mind, it doesn’t appear that that reputation is justified.
From the 2010 version of this work comes these forecasts from Region 2, the Atlantic Corridor, where I live.
December 19, 2009: Heavy rain, warm
January 20, 2010: Heavy rain, warm
February 5, 2010: Showers, warm
February 10, 2010: Sunny, seasonable
For all of these days listed, our area was hit by large monster snowstorms.
Give me a wooly caterpillar any day.