Sometimes deciding whether a pontificator was right or wrong when making a prediction is not cut-and-dried. The post-mortems for a veridiction (my name for the process of verifying predictions) can be tricky when dealing with politics (an example here for example) or finance (another example say), but when it comes to sports, it is easy-peasy.
The formula is simple as the Predictor makes the pronouncement that Team will win or lose. The game is then played, the score is tallied up, and the result is known. That result is then matched up against the Predictor’s guess. It’s quite binary. It’s either yes-or-no. It’s effortless to see if the Predictor was wrong or right.
The 2012-2013 NCAA football season opened up last week and that means any sports columnist worth their sweat-stained salt took their SWAG as to who would win on the gridiron.
For this post, I picked one columnist in particular, John Tamanaha of NBC Sports, where he made his predictions for Week One. Tamanaha not only attempted to select the winning team, but he also predicted the final score. For my purpose, I will only look if he picked the correct team.
How did he do? Let’s go to the tape.
Prediction: Alabama beats Michigan 26-19
Result: Alabama wins 41-14
Prediction: Michigan State defeats Boise State 31-20
Result: Michigan State wins 17-13
Prediction: Clemson over Auburn 27-19
Result: Clemson wins 26-19 (ooooh, only off by 1 point)
Prediction: Virginia Tech beats Georgia Tech 27-17
Result: Virginia Tech wins 20-17
Prediction: South Carolina defeats Vanderbilt 24-23
Result: South Carolina wins 17-13
Prediction: Notre Dame over Navy 28-16
Result: Notre Dame wins 50-10
Prediction: Washington State upsets BYU 31-30
Result: BYU wins 30-6
Out of 7 games, Tamanaha correctly predicted 6. His only “loss” came on what he billed as his upset game as BYU was heavily favored to win that contest.
Congrats to you, Mr. Tamanaha. If I knew you had a favorite fight song, I would play it right about now.